Nowhere Markets

Market Roundup for the Week

The US trading markets for the week of October 24th through October 31st, 2025, were generally positive though volatile. They were characterized by a strong push to new record highs, driven primarily by tech optimism and easing US-China trade tensions, but punctuated by a key Federal Reserve rate cut and a massive sell-off from a major tech company. The cross currents of news and earnings appeared to have markets slightly confused.

Major indices, including the S&P 500, hit all-time highs during the period. The S&P 500 even closed above 6,800 for the first time.

The Technology sector continued to be a primary driver of the rally, with significant stock movements related to Artificial Intelligence (AI) chips and strong corporate results from industry giants.

Markets experienced a notable late-week sell-off on October 30th, largely attributed to investor concerns over the high cost of AI infrastructure spending and a massive 11% drop in Meta Platforms (META) stock following their earnings report. This sell-off was partially offset by a rebound on October 31st, driven by upbeat results from Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL).

The week's market action was shaped by a confluence of economic and geopolitical events. The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 0.25% on Wednesday (Oct 29th), but the market's initial optimism was tempered by the Fed's caution that a further reduction this year was "not a forgone conclusion," which slightly reduced expectations for future easing.

Then, the Markets were boosted by news of a high-level meeting between the US and China, leading to a de-escalation of trade tensions. This included an agreement for the US to reduce some tariffs in exchange for China's commitment to increase US purchases, which helped lift overall market sentiment.

US sanctions on major Russian oil firms caused crude oil prices to jump by about 5%, which in turn fueled a rally in Energy stocks but also stoked renewed inflation concerns.

The 10-year Treasury yield briefly moved lower following the softer CPI, but ultimately settled back near the 4.0% range. Crude oil futures saw a pullback after a strong gain the previous week.

Strategy Corner

Based on this week's market movements, here are some trading ideas and option strategies for the readers' consideration. The positions can be scaled bigger if suitable for larger accounts.

1. SOFI (closed around 29.68 on Friday, Oct 31st)
   If an investor is neutral to slightly bullish over the next 47 days, a short strangle could be a profitable strategy.
   Sell the Dec 19 27/38 strangle and collect about $230 / contract
   Probability of profit about 64%
   
   
   PnL Calculator from the IVolLive Web
2. GOOGL (closed around 281.30 on Friday, Oct 31st)
   The earnings last week were robust but earnings momentum appears to have cooled. If an investor thinks that GOOGL will stay at this level or settle a bit, then a bearish position could be profitable.
   Sell the Dec 19 320call for $320 using about $2800 in buying power.
   No risk to the downside and upside BE around 323.
   
   
   PnL Calculator from the IVolLive Web

Movement of the Major Indeces:

These numbers are reporting the tradable activity from the opening on Monday, Oct 27th to the closing on Friday, Oct 31st (any gaps over the weekend are not included).

Movement of the Major Sectors:

Notable S&P gainers for the week of Oct 27th-31st:

Amazon (AMZN): Was a top performer, surging close to 10% and hitting an all-time high following its upbeat quarterly earnings forecast. The strong performance of its Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud business and plans to boost AI capacity were key drivers.

First Solar (FSLR): Shares powered over 14% higher, making it one of the best performers in the S&P 500 for the day on Friday, October 31st. This was despite an earnings per share miss, as its revenue topped expectations, boosted by demand for U.S. solar projects.

Qualcomm (QCOM): Soared around 11% earlier in the week after announcing new AI accelerator chips for data centers, signaling a major move into a market dominated by competitors.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Also saw significant gains, with reports indicating it was up around 8% for the week, driven by strong demand for its AI and data center chips.

Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG): Shares of Google's parent company rose after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results, fueled by steady growth in advertising and cloud computing.

Netflix (NFLX): Advanced nearly 3% for the week, notably after unveiling plans for a 10-for-1 stock split, which can often increase investor interest.

Western Digital (WDC): Closed up sharply about 9% after providing a quarterly earnings forecast that exceeded Wall Street estimates.

Notable S&P losers for the week of Oct 27th-31st:

Meta Platforms (META): Sank over 11% following the social media company's earnings report, where "notably larger" capital expenses were forecast for next year. Though these expenses are primarily for investments in Artificial Intelligence, investors were concerned about spending.

DexCom (DXCM): Tumbled nearly 15% despite beating sales and profit estimates. The continuous glucose monitor maker's stock fell sharply after management cautioned that 2026 revenue growth could fall short of expectations, and addressed concerns about its G7 sensor product quality.

Newell Brands (NWL): Plummeted nearly 30% after the parent Rubbermaid company saw a steep decline following its quarterly results, indicating significant struggles in its consumer goods segments.

Microsoft (MSFT):Microsoft (MSFT): Fell around 3% following its earnings report, where the company reported a record capital expenditure and warned that spending would continue to rise, likely due to massive investments in its Azure AI cloud infrastructure.

Albemarle (ALB): Dropped nearly 9% as the world's largest lithium producer announced an agreement to sell a controlling stake in one of its businesses, signaling a strategic shift.

Apple (AAPL): Closed down 0.4% despite robust results and a forecast surpassing Wall Street expectations. The stock's performance was clouded by CEO Tim Cook's flagging of supply constraints for the critical iPhone holiday quarter.

Review selected market indices below:

Daily Notable Price Action

Monday's Markets:

Investors entered the week bright-eyed and bushy-tailed thanks to some thawing in trade relations between the US and China. President Trump and President Xi Jinping were expected to meet during the week as the two countries tiptoed towards a deal. There was a huge Sunday night gap when US/China reached a framework for an agreement that would forestall an extra 100% tariff on Chinese goods.

All three major indices hit record closing highs, while the S&P 500 closed above 6,800 for the first time ever. Investors anticipated strong Mag 7 earnings and another interest rate cut from the Fed later this week.

Gold fell below $4,000 at one point on Monday as US investors took on more risk, eating into the metal's impressive rally.

Monday's Movers to the Upside:

• Qualcomm (QCOM) soared after debuting new AO chips to compete with NVDA and AMD
• Avidity Biosciences (RNA) soared over 40% after Novartis announced it will buy the biotech for $12 billion. Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) which also makes treatments for neuromuscular diseases, jumped over 40% as well
• Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP) bubbled nearly 8% higher thanks to a strong quarter for the beverage giant, particularly in international markets
• Lululemon Athletica (LULU) rose nearly 2% after the retailer announced a partnership with the NFL to launch an apparel collection for all 32 teams. The apparel for New York Jets fans will be a paper bag over their heads to hide their shame
• Argentinian companies trading on US exchanges soared on news of Javier Milei's midterm election victory. The bank Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (GGAL) soared nearly 40%, oil company YPF rallied over 23%, while shares of e-commerce firm MercadoLibre (MELI) added over 5.5%

Monday's Movers to the Downside:

• iRobot (IRBT) plummeted over 30% after the iRobot maker revealed that it's struggling to find a company willing to acquire it
• Newmont (NEM) continued to crumble, dropping another 5.69% as the gold miner suffered from the commodity's selloff
• Ford (F) fell over 4% as investors took profits following the automaker's big pop late last week due to solid earnings
• Organon (OGN), a drugmaker focused on women's health, plunged nearly 23% after its CEO resigned following an internal investigation that revealed "improper" sales practices
• Rare earth miners tumbled after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that negotiations with China may mean critical mineral exports won't be tightened after all. MP Materials (MP) dropped over 7%, USA Rare Earth (USAR) fell over 8%, and Ramaco Resources (METC) lost over 2.5%

Tuesday's Markets:

Earnings season marched on, and strong results gave investors the confidence to push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new intra-day record highs yet again.

All eyes were now on the Federal Reserve whose two-day FOMC meeting kicked off. Investors were extremely confident that there will be another interest rate cut from Jerome Powell on Wednesday.

Gold fell into correction territory, tumbling around 10% since its all-time high on Oct. 20th.

Tuesday's Movers to the Upside:

• OpenAI (AI) has completed its restructuring, leaving Microsoft with a 27% stake in the company's for-profit arm. Shares of the tech giant rose nearly 2%
• Nokia (NOK) soared nearly 23% on the news that Nvidia is taking a $1 billion stake in the cellphone maker and telecom equipment provider
• Wayfair (W) skyrocketed over 23% after the online furniture retailer revealed a standout quarter, with tariffs taking a smaller bite of the business than feared
• Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) and Qorvo (QRVO) are merging in a cash-and-stock deal to create a new $22 billion company. Both Skyworks and Qorvo jumped nearly 6%
• PayPal (PYPL) surged nearly 4% thanks to a one-two punch of great earnings, and a new deal to provide checkout services for ChatGPT users
• The US government announced plans to spend $80 billion building nuclear reactors powered by Westinghouse. Parent companies Cameco (CCJ) and Brookfield AssetManagement (BAM) popped 23% and 1%, respectively

Tuesday's Movers to the Downside:

• Kenvue (KVUE) , maker of Tylenol, fell nearly 4% after the state of Texas sued the company for allegedly failing to warn pregnant women of the medication's links to autism. Johnson & Johnson, (JNJ) Kenvue's former parent company, was also named in the suit and dropped 1.77%
• CarMax (KMX) will be removed from the S&P 500 and moved to the S&P SmallCap 600. Shares fell nearly 1.5% on the news
• Royal Caribbean (RCL) dropped nearly 8.5% even though the cruise line beat earnings expectations and raised its fiscal forecast. Investors were expecting more, and pushed shares lower in disappointment
• DR Horton (DHI) dropped over 3% after the homebuilder revealed lower profits and weaker margins due to increased homebuyer incentives

Wednesday's Markets:

It was a "Buy the rumor, sell the news" kind of day as investors pushed indices up to record highs ahead of the Fed's latest monetary policy announcement. The Fed did cut rates by another ¼ point as expected. However, Powell announced that a rate cut in December is "not a foregone conclusion... far from it". He revealed that there were strong differing views on how to proceed in December. That resulted in the December cut odds dropping from around 95% to 62% and the markets sank.

Only the Nasdaq managed to end the day in positive territory, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4%.

In a show of good faith, China bought US soybeans ahead of tomorrow's pivotal meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, the US and South Korea struck a deal: Reciprocal tariffs will drop from 25% to 15%, while South Korea will invest a total of $350 billion in the US.

Wednesday's Movers to the Upside:

• Teradyne (TER) posted a solid quarter, but the semiconductor and robots tester issued forward guidance that blew analysts away. Shares soared over 20%
• Bloom Energy (BE) popped over 18% thanks to a strong quarter as the fuel cell maker continues to profit from rising demand for energy
• Seagate Technology (STX) jumped over 19% on a beat-and-raise earnings report as the data storage provider reaps the rewards of the AI boom
• Caterpillar (CAT) jumped over 11% as demand for data center construction pushed profits and revenue higher
• Centene (CNC) beat analyst projections on its top and bottom line, while the insurer's medical-loss ratio came in below expectations. Share rose over 12% in response
• Nvidia (NVDA) rose nearly 3% to become the first company to hit a market cap of $5 trillion. While AI hype has pushed the stock higher and higher for months now, this final burst across the finish line was due in no small part to the partnership bonanza the semiconductor king revealed at a recent event. Some of the good news consisted of:
  
  • NVDA is taking a $1 billion stake in Nokia, as Nvidia looks to bolster its AI infrastructure buildout
  • The company's partnering with Palantir in an effort to help companies with logistics problems
  • NVDA is partnering with Uber to build a fleet of 100,000 robotaxis and autonomous delivery vehicles
  • NVDA is expanding its work with Crowdstrike to create AI cybersecurity agents for cloud networks
  • NVDA is working with Eli Lilly to build a supercomputer to speed up pharmaceutical design and development
  • Nvidia is building a supercomputer alongside Oracle for the US Department of Energy that is focused on scientific research

Wednesday's Movers to the Downside:

• Stride (LRN) faceplanted over 50% after the online education company reported slower enrollment growth than expected thanks to some botched tech rollouts
• Etsy (ETSY) lost 12.8% thanks to CEO Josh Silverman's announcement that he will step down on Dec. 31 after eight years at the helm
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) may have beaten earnings expectations last quarter, but the solar panel maker forecast lower earnings this quarter, pushing shares down over 15%
• Garmin (GRMN) sank nearly 12% due to a mixed earnings report for the wearable device maker
• Chili's parent company Brinker International (EAT) dropped over 7.5% when its full-year revenue guidance came in lower than what Wall Street would have liked
• Fiserv (FI) plummeted over 40% after it largely missed Wall Street earnings estimates. The fintech company is making some more adjustments at the top, adding three new board members, two new presidents, and a new CFO. The company will also jump from the NYSE to the Nasdaq next month. While change is good, none of that changes the fact that it is still sorting out some "financial surprises" the company discovered early last quarter that have some shareholders heading for the hills. The stock is down over 65% year to date

Thursday's Markets:

The US and China agreed to let bygones be bygones after President Trump's meeting with President Xi went well. The US will reduce 20% tariffs on China over fentanyl production to 10%, while China will pause the rare earth export restrictions it announced earlier this month.

A trade detente between the world's largest economies would usually push stocks higher, but investors may have been distracted by Jerome Powell's warning that the Fed might not cut rates in December, as well as big tech's earnings announcements.

Thursday's Movers to the Upside:

• Alphabet, Inc (GOOGL) moved up over 2.5%. This significant move followed the release of Alphabet's earnings which reported the company's first-ever $100 billion revenue quarter and beat Wall Street expectations
• Apple (AAPL) beat consensus expectations and provided a strong outlook. The stock's immediate after-hours response was positive, but it initially saw a small drop but quickly rebounded and rose in extended trading. The next day, Apple's stock jumped over 2%
• Eli Lilly (LLY) jumped nearly 4% after reporting better-than-expected earnings and revenue, boosted by strong demand for its weight-loss and diabetes drugs
• Cardinal Health (CAH) beat earnings expectations and raised its full-year guidance. Shares skyrocketed over 15%

Thursday's Movers to the Downside:

• Microsoft (MSFT) dropped about 2% following earnings. The main trigger for the sell-off was the management's commentary on significantly elevated capital expenditures (CapEx) for AI capacity, which raised investor concerns about short-term pressure on operating margins and the timeline for realizing returns on these massive investments
• META platforms (META) dropped around 11% despite the company beating revenue and adjusted profit estimates. The sell-off was primarily driven by two major concerns around accelerating AI spending and a one-time tax charge
• Starbucks (SBUX) dipped over 1% after missing earnings forecasts, although the coffee chain reported its first increase in same-store sales in two years
• Coreweave (CRWV) dropped over 6% when news came out that Core Scientific shareholders shot down the crypto miner's sale to rival CoreWeave, terminating the lengthy M&A process
• Cigna (CI) tumbled over 17% after the insurance firm reported that its profit margins from its pharmacy benefit services would drop steeply over the next two years
• Roblox (RBLX) fell over 15%, despite posting Q3 bookings that beat expectations and strong fourth-quarter guidance. The culprit is the gaming company's wider-than-expected Q3 loss
• Microsoft (MSFT) fell 2.90% today, even after beating top and bottom line earnings expectations. Investors might have been displeased with the tech's giant's hefty AI spending
• Nvidia (NVDA) slid 2.04% after investors were disappointed that the meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping didn't immediately result in chip export controls being lifted
• Chipotle (CMG) shares tanked over 18% after the fast-casual chain slashed its full-year forecast for same-store sales for the third quarter in a row. That wasn't the only bad news. Management said that the company was also dealing with declining traffic because young people appeared to no longer afford their beloved burrito bowls. At least five analysts have cut their price targets since Chipotle reported earnings
• Carvana (CVNA) shares dipped nearly 14% even as revenue rolled in above forecasts for the third straight quarter, driven by a 44% surge in car sales. But even though net income more than doubled from a year ago, earnings still came in below expectations—a letdown for a stock that's rallied in 2025. Some of the drop may be chalked up to profit-taking, but broader worries about the auto industry's health, including recent bankruptcies and pressure from inflation, also weighed on sentiment
• eBay (EBAY) shares fell over 16% despite strong third-quarter results. The drop followed a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter forecast, typically the busiest season for retailers: Adding to investor concerns, CFO Peggy Alford pointed to stricter customs rules, including the removal of the de minimis exemption, as key challenges for international small businesses

Friday's Markets:

Stocks started the day on a high note as strong earnings from big tech continued to buoy indices to new heights. The rally faded as investors took profits, but all three major indexes ended the day in the green.

Oil also trimmed some early gains after President Trump denied any plans for a military strike on Venezuela.

October is traditionally a good month for crypto, but this year was different. Bitcoin capped off its worst October since 2018.

Friday's Movers to the Upside:

• Amazon (AMZN) jumped over 10% with the positive performance largely driven by the results beating analysts' expectations, especially due to an acceleration of growth in the company's cloud computing division, Amazon Web Services (AWS), which saw a 20% year-over-year increase in sales
• Coinbase, Inc (COIN) rose by 6% following a beat on earnings and total revenue
• Brighthouse Financial (BHF) soared nearly 25% after reaching advanced talks to be acquired by Aquarian Holdings in a $40 billion deal, which includes a 40% premium over Brighthouse's price today
• Twilio (TWLO) skyrocketed nearly 20% after the cloud communications provider reported a solid quarter, raising full-year guidance, and announcing the acquisition of AI startup Stytch
• Affirm (AFRM) jumped over 4% after securing a $750 million loan deal with New York Life Insurance
• Cloudflare (NET) surged over 13% after beating earnings and revenue estimates, with steady growth fueled by large customer wins and growing ties to generative AI
• Netflix (NFLX) gained nearly 3% after announcing a 10-for-1 stock split, designed to lower the trading price and broaden access for retail investors
• Reddit (RDDT) rose nearly 8% after a standout third quarter, with sales jumping 68% YoY and forward guidance coming in strong
• Apple (AAPL) reported record revenue for the Services division and strong initial demand for the new iPhone lineup, which helped offset a slight miss in total iPhone revenue (attributed to supply constraints). The stock had a mildly positive reaction immediately following the report, but closed the trading day nearly flat

Friday's Movers to the Downside:

• Getty Images (GETY) climbed on news of a deal with Perplexity AI, which will integrate Getty's content into Perplexity's AI-powered search tools. But the stock gave up its early gains and ended the day down 6.47%
• Dexcom (DXM) slipped nearly 15% after the diabetes device maker said the top end of its 2026 revenue forecast will likely fall short of Wall Street expectations
• Newell Brands (NWL) tanked over 25% after the Sharpie and Yankee Candle maker reported lower sales and slashed its outlook, blaming tariff-driven cost pressures
• SPS Commerce (SPSC) fell over 20% despite beating earnings estimates, as the supply chain provider issued underwhelming guidance and flagged ongoing struggles in its revenue recovery platform
• Luminar (LAZR) sank over 45% after the automotive sensor manufacturer reported it will cut 25% of its workforce amid mounting debt and executive turnover

Notable Economic Data due week of Nov 3rd-7th:

Please note that the ongoing federal government shutdown which began on October 1st, 2025 has resulted in cancellation of some (or all) economic reports. This week will also mark a somewhat ignominious milestone as, absent any action, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown will officially become the longest on record on Thursday.

The upcoming week is a crucial week for economic data, although the ongoing US government shutdown is causing uncertainty and likely delays for official government reports.

Here are the most notable economic data points due next week, focusing on US releases. The main focus will be on reports that provide insight into the labor market and business conditions, especially as the official government jobs data may be delayed.

Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI – Sentiment and activity in the manufacturing sector; a key gauge of US economic health.

Tuesday: Jolts job openings – Measures demand for labor via the number of job openings.

Wednesday: ADP national employment report – A private-sector estimate of non-farm private employment change; critical if the official jobs report is delayed.

Wednesday: ISM Services PMI – Sentiment and activity in the much larger US services sector.

Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims – key weekly gauge of the labor market's health, showing the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time.

Thursday: Productivity & Costs – Measures output per hour worked. This is important for gauging inflation pressures and the long-term health of the economy.

Thursday: Wholesale Trade (Inventories and Sales)

Friday: The official jobs report, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), the Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. Note: This report is at high risk of being delayed due to the government shutdown.

Friday: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Surveys consumers on their feelings about current and future economic conditions, which impacts spending.

Closing Thoughts

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Questions / Comments
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